Will Trump contain Iran?

Trump has a plan to contain Iran.

Yet Trump is unlikely to touch Iran's role in the Syrian Civil War. To fight Iranian influence in Syria would be to fight Russia - not only so, to fight Iranian influence in Syria would be to fight on behalf of 'moderate rebels' like Al-Qaeda, ISIS and Ahrar Ash-Sham. This is counter to American interest and thus is a policy which would be discarded by Trump.

Regarding the Iran Nuclear Deal, Trump is unlikely to, as he proposed, 'rip it up.' The main reason for this is, now President-Elect, Trump is able to read the deal and its success in, currently, deterring Iran from forming nuclear weapons. To be sure, the Iranian Nuclear Deal is not a long-term solution, but for now, Trump is more likely to use it for all its worth than simply discard it. However, should Iran break the agreement themselves, Trump would likely put extensive sanctions on Iran - worse than before - rather than wage war on Iran.

It is unlikely that America or any of her Arab allies would be allowed to wage war on Iran. To do so would be to tear Trump foreign policy to shreds. It would jeopardize relations with Russia, bankrupt the American economy - which desperately needs to recover - and continue the ugly neo-con hawk foreign policies of Bush and Obama. Such policies have torn the Middle-East (and America) to shreds since the Iraq War - policies Trump has largely criticized on the campaign trail.


One solution to the Iran conundrum lies, ironically, in Iraq. Under Saddam Hussein, Iraq was anti-Israel, anti-Shi'ite and anti-Iran, the latter two only exacerbated by the Iran-Iraq War of the 1970's. Since the Iraq War, Iran has held considerable sway over Iraqi affairs.

But to decrease Iranian influence, it is unlikely a Sunni dictator would be reinstalled in Iraq - the secret to Iraqi break away from Iran is in the strengthening of Iraq as a sovereign nation. One way this could be done would be to increase Iraqi exports and relations - another way is through using "Iraqi democracy."

In 2010, the opportunity for Iraq to extract itself from Iranian influence was ignored by the Obama Administration. Allawi, a secular Shi'ite, won the Iraqi election against previous Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki - Al-Maliki subsequently engaged in fraud to win a second term. The Obama Administration did nothing about it and let Al-Maliki, Iran's puppet, rule on in Iraq.

Should such an opportunity present itself again for Trump, he would be quick to seize upon it.

Another solution to containing Iran lies in Afghanistan. Should Trump allow a Sunni strong man to control Afghanistan, the kind of bulwark against Iranian influence previously experienced in Iraq would be present in Afghanistan instead. Alternatively, if Trump withdraws from Afghanistan, instability there would threaten Iran on its border.

Another way to contain Iranian influence would be to let Saudi Arabia tear itself to shreds. Should Trump increase unbearable policies towards Saudi Arabia as he intends to, Saudi Arabia would explode in civil war, causing all the Shi'ite population in the Gulf to resettle in Iraq, Syria or Iran.

This would irrevocably end Iranian presence in the Gulf and, while ISIS or Al-Qaeda would likely be benefactors, Iran would most certainly not.

These are some of the ways Iran would have its presence weakened in the Middle-East. Trump is likely to prove there are more ways than just war to weaken a power.