Trump's Afghan War

This article is an analysis on what Trump's likely policy is regarding Afghanistan. For more information, please follow the link below:

http://2016.presidential-candidates.org/Trump/?on=afghanistan

Trump's Afghanistan policy, like his Iraq and Libya policies, have evolved. For example, at first Trump was unsure about whether or not the Iraq War was a good idea. When asked if he supported the Iraq War in 2002, he said, "I guess so..." But by 2004, everyone could see the Iraq War was a bad idea, especially Trump. By 2016, Trump championed being anti-Iraq War.

As another example, in 2011 Trump praised the overthrow of Libyan President Gidaffi. Now Trump sharply criticizes the decision as Libya is now a breeding ground for ISIS.


Short-term, Trump is unlikely to make a sizable difference in Afghanistan policy. His first priority is in destroying ISIS and seeing Iraq, Syria and Libya stabilize. I have analysed these conflicts in other articles, but in brief, I see it likely that Trump will increase oil trade relations between Iraq and the West to stabilize Iraq, and is also likely to hand over the Syrian and Libyan conflicts to Russia.

However, Afghanistan, unlike Syria and Libya, cannot simply be handed over to another foreign power to be dealt with. Such a move would trivialize the losses America has experienced there - militarily, politically and economically - and cause Trump to lose support from the military industrial complex. In addition, Russia has shown interest in both Afghanistan and Iraq, which is why it seems more likely that he will not only hand Syria but also Libya over to Putin - giving Russia more definite Arab allies means Trump would be less challenged over Afghanistan and Iraq.

The secret to the Afghan War lies in another country: Pakistan. Pakistan has lied to the United States about continued support for the Taliban and is also receiving huge amounts of money from the US. If Pakistani support for the Taliban continues, Trump would likely threaten to stop providing financial aid unless they stop.

Many of America's problems are tied together. Coupled with the Pakistan problem is the China problem - why I mention it here will make more sense in the next paragraph. China has been ripping America off through unfair trade agreements - Trump's criticism of the 'One China' policy means Trump is not afraid of China, nor of losing her as an exporter of goods to the United States. In fact, Trump and America might even gain from losing Chinese imports.

This is an important point, because without Chinese trade, the US needs another superpower to trade goods with. Enter India.

India is part of Trump's solution to Afghanistan. Regarding the Afghan War, Obama began to distance America from Pakistan in favour of assistance from India - this is likely to continue at a faster rate. A strengthening of Indian-Afghani relations would of course benefit Afghanistan in their fight on the Taliban. India and America have mutual interests in Afghanistan. India and America also have mutual benefits in trading with each other, and this would only be strengthened by combined efforts in Afghanistan.

Unlike Obama and George W. Bush, Trump is likely to lay out in concrete terms what he hopes to accomplish in Afghanistan. He is likely to support the complete eradication of the Taliban from Afghanistan. He is also likely to allow either the current leader of Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani - or another future leader - to remain in power indefinitely as a dictator. Trump sees it is more important for Afghanistan to stabilize than for it to have democracy.

Coupled with these policies is an upping of trade between Afghanistan and the United States, to help both economies. This would help Afghanistan recover economically from fighting war for so long.

Of course these solutions create problems. One such problem is that Pakistan may feel alienated from the US and ally more closely with China. However, such an alliance benefits Trump more than damages him; Pakistan is an ally which has been abusing its relationship with America; China, though not an American ally, has also been abusing its relationship with the US. Putting the two together helps America keep its enemies in one basket.

Another possibility is that the remnants of the Taliban will regroup in Pakistan and ignite a civil war in the country. This would cause untold suffering for the Pakistani Christians and cause a refugee crisis. However, again, this is better than the alternative, which is a continued growth in Taliban power and a continued Pakistani support for perpetrators of 9-11.

On the other hand, should civil war break out in Pakistan, refugees could flee to India and Afghanistan, putting geopolitics in Trump's favour. China would also be forced to intervene in Pakistan, tying them up in a conflict that would weaken them.

If Trump were to solve the Afghan War in this manner, as it seems likely he will, he would have my support. It would cause problems, but on the whole, it would cause sizable defeats for terrorism in the war on terror.