Which conflicts will Trump continue?

In this article we will be examining which conflicts Trump will be set to continue into the foreseeable future.


1) Iraq

Iraq is first. With Trump pledging, 'strong and firm support' to the Abadi government, expect the Iraqi half of the war on ISIS to be Trump's top priority in the Middle-East.

Of course the American military could knock out ISIS in Iraq in no time at all. Yet this would not solve the underpinning eco-political problems in the country which gave rise to ISIS in the first place. Should Trump manage to solve those, with upping and protecting Iraqi oil exports; giving Iraqis more of the oil market at the expense of Iran and Saudi Arabia; allowing Sunni Iraqis and Shi'ite Iraqis to feel as one people - then the crisis would be over in Iraq and it would return to stability.


2) Afghanistan

Trump's comments in 2012 and 2013 suggest being in favour of withdrawing from Afghanistan.

However, much has changed since then. Obama has since withdrawn from Iraq in 2011, only to return there in 2014 barely 3 years later. Not only so, but Russia has expressed interest in Afghanistan. Both of these are reasons why Trump may have changed his mind in the interim.

More likely than immediate withdrawal is, after ISIS is dealt with in Iraq and Syria, a harsh crackdown on the Taliban in Afghanistan, which would also mean confronting Pakistan's role in funding and supporting the Taliban. Trump might even leverage finances sent by America to Pakistan in order for them to stop supporting the Taliban and get tougher on their own Pakistan-Afghani border.

Failure to comply could have serious financial repercussions for the Pakistani government. Alternatively, a serious Taliban crackdown in Afghanistan by the Trump Administration could cause instability to increase in Pakistan, as Pakistanis would perceive it a sphere of influence lost to India. It might even force Pakistan to stronger relations with China, as Trump would have no desire to get involved in a civil war resulting from the destruction of Taliban in Afghanistan and subsequent regroup in Pakistan.

This would have serious repercussions for Christians in Pakistan. Perhaps Trump would then use American influence in both Afghanistan and India to provide refugee camps exclusively for Pakistani Christians, to give them refuge from the Pakistani Taliban; perhaps they might even resettle en-masse in India and Afghanistan.

The main problem for the Afghani government is in its corruption. If its corruption disappeared, the Afghan half of the Taliban could disappear too. The only way to effectively do that would be to 1) up the economy, which the Trump Administration has suggested it is keen to do, and 2) work on a 'strong man' government.

Since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, America has lacked an anti-Iranian ally in the region who is able to both push back on Iranian influence and not fund terrorism. Should Trump view Afghanistan through that lenses - which I believe likely - Trump would prioritize Afghanistan higher than other conflicts.



In my opinion, Trump is more likely to get out of Syria, Libya and Yemen than out of Afghanistan, as Afghanistan is an American invested interest in central Asia, and more American blood has been shed in Afghanistan than those other 3 conflicts.

Stability in Iraq is even higher on Trump's agenda.