Russian interest in Afghanistan and Iraq likely to influence Trump policy

While Trump is fine for Russia to have more of an influence in the Middle-East, influence in Afghanistan and Iraq would be unacceptable for an 'America-First' Trump policy.

Under a Trump Administration 15 years of hard fighting in Afghanistan and over 10 years of fighting in Iraq are unlikely to be wasted by Russian control of those countries. Trump is more likely to drastically change the strategies in both Iraq and Afghanistan to achieve victory there, while leaving Russia to deal with other sizable conflicts in the Middle-East.

Trump has a valuable opportunity to get Putin to solve the conflicts in Syria, Libya and Yemen, without America itself lifting a finger. In Syria, the looming Russian victory is obvious; in Libya, Haftar al-Khalifa, the likely next dictator, is already making visits to Russia. Even Ali Abdullah Saleh, one of the main supporters of the Houthi movement in Yemen, has boasted that Putin would ally with him in the future.

But Russian interest in Afghanistan and Iraq runs counter to American interest, since so much blood has been spilt there without, as of yet, benefitting America much at all.

America's solution to the Iraq problem is simple: oil. Should America, after the destruction of ISIS in Iraq, protect their oilfields to increase production while decreasing production from Iran and Saudi Arabia, the Iraqi economy would boom and the ISIS threat to Iraq would be nullified.

In Afghanistan the solution is more complex. Certainly a strong government is needed to control Afghanistan, one which provides a sizable alternative to the Taliban and to neighbouring Iranian influence. The challenges of a government of this kind in Afghanistan are immense. Can Trump pull it off? Maybe.

The solution for Afghanistan is a nation-wide banning of the Taliban from the country and, should any surface, they should be arrested and jailed. Such penalties are harsh, but are the only way to get a country like Afghanistan stable.

Long-term, Afghanistan has the regional potential to act as a counterbalance much like Saddam Hussein's Iraq did. This of course is unlikely to go unnoticed under the Trump Administration. Should Pakistani and Iranian influence be quenched from Afghanistan, stability would be much easier there and even benefit stability in the wider region.

Russian interest in Iraq and Afghanistan may just be Russia's way of asking Trump for a free hand in Syria, Libya and Yemen. Trump is likely to let Russia have a free hand in those conflicts to focus more on 'Make America Great Again'.