Trump's new plan for defeating ISIS

What will Trump do to defeat ISIS?

Trump has stated that he would give the military 30 days for constructing a new, more effective plan to completely degrade, defeat and destroy ISIS. While Obama's ISIS plan has worked in Iraq, in Syria it has left the country worse off than ever, forcing Russia to step in to save the Syrian Government in 2015.

Trump is expected to be handed that plan today. I would like to make some predictions, then I will release another post to confirm whether I was on target or not:

1) In Iraq, Obama's strategy will be implemented, only on a grander scale. Iraqi forces will receive enormous amounts of air power to drive ISIS out of western Mosul, Hawija and western Anbar province. Obama's strategy has largely worked - Trump is unlikely to undo it, only add to it.

2) In Syria, Trump will work with Turkey against common objectives. Trump will not fund the Kurds inasmuch as he will work with the Turkish military. He will use the Turkish military to push through ISIS-held territory, preventing the Kurds from advancing any further onto Raqqa or anywhere else. From the Syrian territory held by Turkey, safe zones will be implemented.

However, by that same token, Trump will not allow the Turks to take any of the Syrian Kurdish territory from them. Trump will force Turkey to target ISIS territory, not Kurdish territory, but do so to prevent the Kurds from gaining any more territory. This middle ground strategy would mean that neither side is fully satisfied, benefiting Trump diplomatically.

3) Trump will work for airstrikes with Russia. One of Trump's hopes is that the burden of obliterating ISIS will fall not only on the back of the US, but also on the back of the Russians. Turkey and Russia have already been doing joint airstrikes against ISIS; it would not be hard militarily for America to follow Turkey's example under Trump - though, diplomatically, it would be a nightmare.

4) Trump will put pressure on Bashar Al-Assad to fight ISIS first and save the rebels in Idlib for later. Trump wants to use Assad as a battering ram on ISIS (which is interesting, because Obama did the exact opposite: he used ISIS as a battering ram on Assad from 2014 - 2016!)

Trump wants Assad's first priority on the complete and utter destruction of ISIS before defeating the other rebels in Syria. With Russian and Turkish pressure for the same, and with Assad controlling Aleppo, it is not hard to see that Assad would swing his army east rather than north-west.


Time will tell how close to the mark I was.

Trump's Middle-East - February 2017 Update

Now that we have seen the last two and a half weeks of Trump's Middle-East, I thought I would make some observations.

In Syria, Trump has kept his word that he would not try and overthrow Assad, who in his words was "a bad guy, but there might be worse guys after him... We don't even know who we're funding." However, he has not withdrawn and does not seem keen on withdrawing from the Syrian conflict immediately, but rather in escalating it on the side of Russia. His aim is to pin American coalition, Russian, Iranian and Syria forces against ISIS as priority number one. He plans to completely destroy ISIS in Syria before withdrawing from the conflict.

The speedy agreement by the Gulf countries in funding safe zones in Syria is a token of good will to the new President by the Gulf countries, and also reveals a deep sense of dread that they may be replaced as top allies in the Middle-East.

In Iraq, Trump has caused some diplomatic difficulties by his Muslim ban from 7 nations, including Iraq. After becoming President, he has also created difficulties by saying that America would "take their oil", without providing Iraq with appropriate context.

However, Trump has pledged that Iraq is an important partner to the US and that it will receive strong, firm support. Yet this has not meant that previous abuses of the Iraqi-American relationship will be tolerated by Trump. He has in a tweet said that "Iran is continuing to take over Iraq... Obvious long ago!" which suggests Trump wants Abadi to curb Iranian influence in the country. Abadi has been responding appropriately to diplomatic tensions between the American and Iranian powers in the country and has so far fared well under Trump from Iraq's perspective.

It seems Trump is getting the ugly side of the Iraqi-American relationship out of the way before focusing on building the relationship in a way that will increase stability in the region. Trump is expected to provide explosive power to the Iraqi fight against ISIS, and will also likely stabilize Iraq through increasing their oil productions, to replace an over-dependence by the West on Saudi and Iranian oil.

With Iran, Trump has been using the confines of the Iran Nuclear Deal as a basis from which to put sanctions back on the theocratic regime. When ballistic missiles were tested by Iran, the Trump Administration immediately put Iran 'on notice.' When Iranians mocked the Administration, the response was American sanctions.

This has undoubtedly shown Iran up. With them likely to keep their partners in Syria and Hezbollah under the Trump Administration, Iran is unlikely to continue to push America under Trump, unlike under Obama.

In Libya, Trump has shown a willingness to let Russia handle the conflict. Together with letting President Bashar Al-Assad stay in Syria, these tokens of goodwill to Russia will ease American expenditure in the region, while also increasing the benefits of stronger American-Russian relations. Libya, like Syria, will stabilize under efforts by Russia, which is a great deal of good for the region as a whole.

In Yemen, nothing has changed as substantially. While handing Syria and Libya over to Russia, Trump is keen to be seen helping his Saudi allies in their murderous assault on the Yemeni people, under the pretext of "but Iran," and this despite the fact the Houthis are largely waging war independent of Iran, and are actually a stabilizing factor in Yemen. Yemen is so far Trump's most disappointing foreign policy.

In Afghanistan, Trump's next step is largely unknown. Long-term, I expect Trump will hand over Afghanistan to a Sunni dictator, stabilizing the country, upsetting Pakistan, China and Iran while pleasing India. However, Afghanistan is a less pressing issue for Trump than ISIS in Syria and Iraq, so he will undoubtedly wait until ISIS is defeated and Iraq and Syria are stabilized before driving more forcefully into Afghanistan.

Will Trump do an Iran War?

Will Trump do an Iran War?

Probably not.

Iran is an Islamic theocracy that is trying to build a nuclear weapon. They have widespread support in the Middle-East as 'sticking it to America,' especially in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine and Yemen.

But there are areas in which Trump and Iran have the same goals, which is why Trump is unlikely to do an Iran War. One such area is Syria. In Syria, Bashar Al-Assad is heavily backed by Lebanese Hezbollah - supported by Iran - factions of Hamas - also supported by Iran - and Iran has sent Iraqi and Afghani Shi'ite militias to fight for Bashar Al-Assad.

If Assad fell from power, ISIS would fill the vacuum, cause genocides of Syrian minorities and Israel would be fighting ISIS on the Israeli-Syrian border.

With Trump vowing to 'get along well with Putin,' it is unlikely Trump would wage war with Iran while Iran is contributing to a solution in Syria.

In Iraq, the situation is more dire and more complex. Many say that it was American intervention in the Iraq War which gave Iraq the instability it now has. This is not entirely true. What is more accurate is that America and Iran are equally responsible for near irreparable damage to the country. Yes, you got it - Iran has caused a fountain of instability in Iraq and shares responsibility for the rise of ISIS there. This is because Iran invaded Iraq at the same time America did in 2003.

What is more likely than Trump invading Iran would be a second invasion of - yes, that's right - Iraq, to expel Iranian influence from it. Such a task would be enormous (though not as enormous as attacking Iran) though not impossible, and might help give Trump an alternative to Saudi Arabia as top Arab ally in the Middle-East.

This second invasion would only occur after Trump has handed over Syria to Russia and Iran, and after ISIS is completely destroyed in Iraq. He would probably use intervention as a pretext for bringing a voice back to the Sunni Arabs of Iraq.

It is still early days, but I doubt that the escalation between America and Iran will go beyond sanctions on Iran and another war to stabilize Iraq. But even a second war on Iraq from Trump is not a guarantee - only a more likely scenario than an Iran War.