Will Trump do an Iran War?

Will Trump do an Iran War?

Probably not.

Iran is an Islamic theocracy that is trying to build a nuclear weapon. They have widespread support in the Middle-East as 'sticking it to America,' especially in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine and Yemen.

But there are areas in which Trump and Iran have the same goals, which is why Trump is unlikely to do an Iran War. One such area is Syria. In Syria, Bashar Al-Assad is heavily backed by Lebanese Hezbollah - supported by Iran - factions of Hamas - also supported by Iran - and Iran has sent Iraqi and Afghani Shi'ite militias to fight for Bashar Al-Assad.

If Assad fell from power, ISIS would fill the vacuum, cause genocides of Syrian minorities and Israel would be fighting ISIS on the Israeli-Syrian border.

With Trump vowing to 'get along well with Putin,' it is unlikely Trump would wage war with Iran while Iran is contributing to a solution in Syria.

In Iraq, the situation is more dire and more complex. Many say that it was American intervention in the Iraq War which gave Iraq the instability it now has. This is not entirely true. What is more accurate is that America and Iran are equally responsible for near irreparable damage to the country. Yes, you got it - Iran has caused a fountain of instability in Iraq and shares responsibility for the rise of ISIS there. This is because Iran invaded Iraq at the same time America did in 2003.

What is more likely than Trump invading Iran would be a second invasion of - yes, that's right - Iraq, to expel Iranian influence from it. Such a task would be enormous (though not as enormous as attacking Iran) though not impossible, and might help give Trump an alternative to Saudi Arabia as top Arab ally in the Middle-East.

This second invasion would only occur after Trump has handed over Syria to Russia and Iran, and after ISIS is completely destroyed in Iraq. He would probably use intervention as a pretext for bringing a voice back to the Sunni Arabs of Iraq.

It is still early days, but I doubt that the escalation between America and Iran will go beyond sanctions on Iran and another war to stabilize Iraq. But even a second war on Iraq from Trump is not a guarantee - only a more likely scenario than an Iran War.