Trump's Middle-East - February 2017 Update

Now that we have seen the last two and a half weeks of Trump's Middle-East, I thought I would make some observations.

In Syria, Trump has kept his word that he would not try and overthrow Assad, who in his words was "a bad guy, but there might be worse guys after him... We don't even know who we're funding." However, he has not withdrawn and does not seem keen on withdrawing from the Syrian conflict immediately, but rather in escalating it on the side of Russia. His aim is to pin American coalition, Russian, Iranian and Syria forces against ISIS as priority number one. He plans to completely destroy ISIS in Syria before withdrawing from the conflict.

The speedy agreement by the Gulf countries in funding safe zones in Syria is a token of good will to the new President by the Gulf countries, and also reveals a deep sense of dread that they may be replaced as top allies in the Middle-East.

In Iraq, Trump has caused some diplomatic difficulties by his Muslim ban from 7 nations, including Iraq. After becoming President, he has also created difficulties by saying that America would "take their oil", without providing Iraq with appropriate context.

However, Trump has pledged that Iraq is an important partner to the US and that it will receive strong, firm support. Yet this has not meant that previous abuses of the Iraqi-American relationship will be tolerated by Trump. He has in a tweet said that "Iran is continuing to take over Iraq... Obvious long ago!" which suggests Trump wants Abadi to curb Iranian influence in the country. Abadi has been responding appropriately to diplomatic tensions between the American and Iranian powers in the country and has so far fared well under Trump from Iraq's perspective.

It seems Trump is getting the ugly side of the Iraqi-American relationship out of the way before focusing on building the relationship in a way that will increase stability in the region. Trump is expected to provide explosive power to the Iraqi fight against ISIS, and will also likely stabilize Iraq through increasing their oil productions, to replace an over-dependence by the West on Saudi and Iranian oil.

With Iran, Trump has been using the confines of the Iran Nuclear Deal as a basis from which to put sanctions back on the theocratic regime. When ballistic missiles were tested by Iran, the Trump Administration immediately put Iran 'on notice.' When Iranians mocked the Administration, the response was American sanctions.

This has undoubtedly shown Iran up. With them likely to keep their partners in Syria and Hezbollah under the Trump Administration, Iran is unlikely to continue to push America under Trump, unlike under Obama.

In Libya, Trump has shown a willingness to let Russia handle the conflict. Together with letting President Bashar Al-Assad stay in Syria, these tokens of goodwill to Russia will ease American expenditure in the region, while also increasing the benefits of stronger American-Russian relations. Libya, like Syria, will stabilize under efforts by Russia, which is a great deal of good for the region as a whole.

In Yemen, nothing has changed as substantially. While handing Syria and Libya over to Russia, Trump is keen to be seen helping his Saudi allies in their murderous assault on the Yemeni people, under the pretext of "but Iran," and this despite the fact the Houthis are largely waging war independent of Iran, and are actually a stabilizing factor in Yemen. Yemen is so far Trump's most disappointing foreign policy.

In Afghanistan, Trump's next step is largely unknown. Long-term, I expect Trump will hand over Afghanistan to a Sunni dictator, stabilizing the country, upsetting Pakistan, China and Iran while pleasing India. However, Afghanistan is a less pressing issue for Trump than ISIS in Syria and Iraq, so he will undoubtedly wait until ISIS is defeated and Iraq and Syria are stabilized before driving more forcefully into Afghanistan.