Trump's new plan for defeating ISIS

What will Trump do to defeat ISIS?

Trump has stated that he would give the military 30 days for constructing a new, more effective plan to completely degrade, defeat and destroy ISIS. While Obama's ISIS plan has worked in Iraq, in Syria it has left the country worse off than ever, forcing Russia to step in to save the Syrian Government in 2015.

Trump is expected to be handed that plan today. I would like to make some predictions, then I will release another post to confirm whether I was on target or not:

1) In Iraq, Obama's strategy will be implemented, only on a grander scale. Iraqi forces will receive enormous amounts of air power to drive ISIS out of western Mosul, Hawija and western Anbar province. Obama's strategy has largely worked - Trump is unlikely to undo it, only add to it.

2) In Syria, Trump will work with Turkey against common objectives. Trump will not fund the Kurds inasmuch as he will work with the Turkish military. He will use the Turkish military to push through ISIS-held territory, preventing the Kurds from advancing any further onto Raqqa or anywhere else. From the Syrian territory held by Turkey, safe zones will be implemented.

However, by that same token, Trump will not allow the Turks to take any of the Syrian Kurdish territory from them. Trump will force Turkey to target ISIS territory, not Kurdish territory, but do so to prevent the Kurds from gaining any more territory. This middle ground strategy would mean that neither side is fully satisfied, benefiting Trump diplomatically.

3) Trump will work for airstrikes with Russia. One of Trump's hopes is that the burden of obliterating ISIS will fall not only on the back of the US, but also on the back of the Russians. Turkey and Russia have already been doing joint airstrikes against ISIS; it would not be hard militarily for America to follow Turkey's example under Trump - though, diplomatically, it would be a nightmare.

4) Trump will put pressure on Bashar Al-Assad to fight ISIS first and save the rebels in Idlib for later. Trump wants to use Assad as a battering ram on ISIS (which is interesting, because Obama did the exact opposite: he used ISIS as a battering ram on Assad from 2014 - 2016!)

Trump wants Assad's first priority on the complete and utter destruction of ISIS before defeating the other rebels in Syria. With Russian and Turkish pressure for the same, and with Assad controlling Aleppo, it is not hard to see that Assad would swing his army east rather than north-west.


Time will tell how close to the mark I was.