The China-Iran Deal: Khamenei's Grand Vision

 

After losing Qassem Soleimani, Ayatollah Khamenei decided that if his regime is to collapse, it will be Chinese Communism, not US democracy, that inherits Iran.

Although the signed Nuclear Deal of 2015 initially gave Iran sanctions relief, the arrival of President Donald Trump snapped US sanctions back into place and returned the two nations to previous levels of hostility. As tensions escalated, the United States largely abstained from retaliation - until assassinating Qassem Soleimani, the man largely perceived to be second-in-command of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The assassination was embarrassing for the Islamic Republic. It has had a catastrophic impact on Iran's ability to retain influence in Iraq and might additionally see the end of the current Iran-friendly administration in Lebanon. To make matters worse: Qassem Soleimani was the most popular figure of the Islamic Republic - with him gone, the Iranian people will be more hostile than ever towards the regime. On all fronts, the US is defeating Iran.

But earlier this year a draft of a comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Iran was leaked to the international press. Though condemned by many in Iran's political sphere, it is unlikely to be the work of Hassan Rouhani, the Iranian President. It is far more likely to have been designed by the true authority, Ayatollah Khamenei, because for the Ayatollah, if Iran must compromise, it cannot and will not compromise with the murderers of Qassem Soleimani. Instead, it will compromise with China, another regime almost as hellbent on destroying America as Iran.

Increasingly, Iran and China are likely to work as strategic partners in all matters US-related. Particularly concerning for the US is the potential for the Taliban to join this Chinese-Iranian axis. Such an outcome would erupt Afghanistan into flames after the withdrawal of US forces. The United States would be forced to return to Afghanistan within a couple years, as with Iraq in 2014, and the US would be sufficiently distracted while Iran and China make consolidations elsewhere.

Although stoking the flames in Afghanistan is ideal for China, it would further the risk of war between Iran and the US. That said, it is very unlikely that President Donald Trump would ever go to war with Iran - but under the new strategic partnership, Iran is much more likely to be forced by China into fully supporting the Taliban and completely rejecting the US-backed Afghan government, which would force the US and Iran into yet another dangerous war by proxy.

In return, China would likely support an Iran-Hezbollah-backed coup on Lebanon. As mentioned in a previous article, as the economic situation in Lebanon gets worse, it becomes increasingly likely that Hezbollah will end up ruling the Arab nation. With Chinese support behind Iran and Hezbollah; with Afghanistan in flames and with Taiwan at increasing risk of Chinese invasion, there would be little appetite from the US to wage war with Hezbollah in Lebanon:

https://jwaveruspolitics.blogspot.com/2020/08/bankrupt-lebanon-to-be-ruled-by.html 

In spite of the mutual benefits for both China and Iran, Iran's independence will eventually be eroded and China will become the dominant partner. Yet even should the Islamic Republic be overthrown, their creed, "death to America, death to Israel" will live on in an Iran ruled by Chinese Communism.