Bankrupt Lebanon to be ruled by Hezbollah - analysis

It is no secret that the Syrian Arab Army occupied Lebanon for 29 years. But Hezbollah and Iran actively participating in the Syrian Civil War ensures that Syria will not return to Lebanon - Hezbollah and Iran, however, will.

In 1976 during the brutal Lebanese civil war, the Syrian Arab Army sent a large occupying force into Lebanon to stabilize the situation. Even after the civil war's completion in 1990, the Syrian government kept military control of Lebanon for the next 15 years, greatly frustrating certain elements of Lebanon's political apparatus until Syria's withdrawal in 2005.

But the Syrian Civil War (2011 - present) has changed the strategic calculus. Hezbollah, an important part of the unofficial Lebanese political-military structure, joined the Syrian Arab Army in an attempt to prevent the collapse of the Syrian government. After Russian involvement turned the tide in favour of President Assad, Hezbollah wielded an enormous amount of influence in both Syria and Lebanon.

To challenge this emerging strategic threat, the Trump Administration has prevented Lebanon from receiving any further economic bailouts until they first sever ties with Hezbollah. This has greatly exacerbated an already unstable economic condition. More than this, however: it has sowed the seeds of animosity between Lebanon and Hezbollah. Such animosity within Lebanon already started to show after Hezbollah took a side in the Syrian Civil War. In the eyes of the Arab world, this turned Hezbollah from an anti-Israeli organization into an anti-Sunni Muslim organization. Economic crises which can be directly blamed on Hezbollah threatens to bring the organization and the Lebanese people to breaking point.

All of this changes Hezbollah's calculus considerably. Israel is already putting pressure on all Iran-affiliated militias to not settle on Syria's Israeli border - should Lebanon go bankrupt, military might may indeed once again occupy Lebanon - but not the weakened Syrian Arab Army. Hezbollah's influence in Syria may indeed have bought it legitimacy from the Syrian government to act on its behalf and stabilize Lebanon militarily.

For Hezbollah to militarily occupy all of Lebanon, it would need to at least partially - if not completely - withdraw from Syria. For Iran, a withdrawal of Hezbollah from Syria could be part of a larger deal with Russia: Hezbollah hands over its control of Syria to Russia, on the condition of Russian support for a Hezbollah-controlled Lebanon.

Though a Hezbollah-controlled Lebanon does pose a significant risk to Israel, for the Trump Administration it would legitimize its maximum pressure strategy on Iran and help reveal to more of the Arab world just how malevolent Iranian influence is in the region. The takeover of Lebanon would, additionally, further weaken Iranian influence in Iraq - which is one of the Trump Administration's top priorities - as Iraqis would respond with fury, fearing the same thing would happen in Iraq at the hands of the Popular Mobilization Forces.

All of this would mean that the Trump Administration's top priority concerning Iran - weakening Iran's hold on Iraq - would be accomplished. Hezbollah's occupation of Lebanon may indeed signal the beginning of the end of Iranian influence in Iraq, and force Iran to consolidate its power in Lebanon and Syria at Iraq's expense.

For the Lebanese people, however, misery would ensue. A Hezbollah-controlled Lebanon would be under crippling sanctions, and with the likely loss of Baghdad to ensue, Iran's new centre of influence in the Arab world would be Lebanon and Beirut, and Hassan Nasrallah would become the Arab equivalent of Ayatollah Khomeini.