Animosity between China and the United States has provided a much-needed lifeline for Iran. Further, increased Sino-Iranian cooperation could be disastrous for US policy in Afghanistan.
Until 2020, relations between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and the Trump Administration had been strained but respectful. The two superpowers found common ground on North Korea, Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq and on an emerging trade deal. But the global pandemic of Covid-19 effectively destroyed US-Sino relations, and have the potential to throw the two superpowers into a Second Cold War.
But Hong Kong, Taiwan and the South China Sea are not the only arenas likely to be impacted by a Second Cold War. Iran is perhaps the United States' most imminent threat to its vision for the Middle-East, and China has important reasons to strike a strategic alliance with Iran, even at the risk of losing oil revenue from Gulf states like Saudi Arabia.
Apart from vengeance against the Trump Administration, the other crucial reason for increased Sino-Iranian relations would be to erode Indian influence. India has enjoyed warm relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran but is an adversary of China. China cutting into India's relations with Iran would be a big blow, as India would be locked out of the wider Central Asian market and forced to side with the US' belligerency towards Iran.
For Iran, too, the calculus with the United States has changed. Before 2020, Iran resisted US pressure but was ultimately likely to strike a new nuclear deal in order to survive economically. But with the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, Iran's prestige suffered a severe blow and a deal with the US has become too humiliating to stomach. Should Donald Trump get reelected, as is likely, Iran would rather strike a deal with Xi's China than with the Trump Administration.
In the event of reelection, China and Iran would be desperate to strike back, and this desperation makes them both likely to explore possible avenues of cooperation with the Taliban. After 2 and a half years of negotiation, the United States has recently concluded a peace deal with the Taliban. The US is to withdraw from Afghanistan and, in exchange, the Taliban has pledged not to let its territory be used for terrorist attacks and has pledged to negotiate with the Afghan government.
Should the Taliban uphold their end of the deal, the United States would withdraw its troops over a 14 month period. During this period, the Taliban are very much likely to comply with US demands and reject any overtures from Iran or China. Yet at the conclusion of these 14 months, the Taliban is likely to agree to Iranian and Chinese overtures, and the mutual benefit would be considerable to all three parties involved.
In this scenario, the US would be forced to return to Afghanistan and be too busy dealing with high levels of instability to turn its military might on Iran or China. It would be comparable to US reentry into Iraq in 2014. Should the US use Pakistan as a conduit into Afghanistan, China would be able to spy on the US through Pakistan and gain a further advantage in the Second Cold War, possibly forcing the United States to look for more expensive routes into Afghanistan.
A Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan would be a great test for President Trump. It would test his ability to find alternate solutions to the Afghan crisis, test his willingness to work with the Taliban, test how far he is willing to punish Iran and China for exacerbating the crisis and, finally, test whether he would strike a deal with a country like Russia to stabilize Afghanistan once and for all.
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