The Yemen Question

Unlike Obama, Trump has escalated the conflict in Yemen against Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. The real question is, will Trump escalate the war to include against the Houthis in Hodeida?

No. I do not believe he will. And if he does, Trump will not bring an end to the wars of the Middle-East. His decision in regards to the Houthis, therefore, is a critical one. If he escalates the war, he will show that he is a war-monger. If he does not escalate the war, he will show the American people that he wants America out of the endless cycle of wars and he will be practically guaranteed a second Presidential term.

The question therein lies: how can Trump defeat Iran without engaging in a costly proxy war in Yemen? The answer is two-fold: Iraq and Afghanistan.

I do believe it to be far more likely that Trump will continue the Afghan War than escalate the Yemen War. Should Trump strengthen Afghanistan as a sovereign, independent country, it would certainly act as a bulwark on Iranian influence as Saddam Hussein's Iraq used to. Afghanistan has enormous economic potential - should that be unleashed, Afghanistan could become a dominant power in the Middle-East, and that to limit Iranian influence.

On the other hand, withdrawal from Afghanistan would guarantee that tensions between the Taliban and Iran would be exacerbated, and this could spill over into all-out conflict, resulting in the annexation of Afghanistan to Iran. That would be detrimental to the region and to American interest.

As for Iraq, this will be discussed in more detail in another post. Suffice to say there is considerable difference between the Shi'ites in Iraq and those in Iran, though both adhere to twelver Shi'ism. Should the Iraq brand of Shi'ism be funded to the exclusion of Iranian Shi'ism, not only in Iraq but in the Gulf, Afghanistan, Syria and Yemen, then Iran's influence would be greatly reduced.

Trump is unlikely to see Yemen as pressing an issue as ISIS in Iraq and Syria, or as the Taliban is in Afghanistan. I was right about Iran - am I right about Yemen? Time will tell.