Trump's Middle-East - March Update

How does Trump's foreign policy look 2 months since his inauguration?

Clearly, a lot is happening in the Middle-East, and a lot of it is related to Trump's action and inaction. In Syria, the battle against ISIS is clearly defined and not sidetracked by a war on the Syrian Government, as it was under Obama. In Iraq, Trump is capitalizing on Obama's success in his 'degrade, defeat and destroy ISIL' campaign, escalating the battle for Mosul and meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi.

In Iraq, Trump is set to stay in the country to make sure on the one hand, that the ISIS threat does not return, and on the other, make sure Iranian influence is quelled within the country. Destroying Iranian influence in Iraq can be done - all Iraq and America need to do is:

1) embrace Iraqi nationalism, and
2) fund Iraqi Shi'ism extensively

Embracing Iraqi nationalism is something which can only be done with a strong economy, government and army. Trump seems to be entirely aware of these in Iraq, with a focus on trying to give Iraqi Sunnis more power in the government, wanting to increase oil exports and increase counter-terrorism intelligence.

On the other hand, there is a big difference between Iraqi and Iranian Shi'ism. If Trump were to encourage funding of Iraqi Shi'ism to spread to other Shi'ite areas, such as Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen, the Gulf states and even Iran, Iranian influence in the region would drastically recede. This would benefit the Middle-East enormously and would be one powerful way for Trump to use smart tactics to decrease Iran's appeal.

In Syria, Trump's target to 'degrade, defeat and destroy ISIS' seems set to work, and this primarily because he has dropped Obama's policy of "Assad must go." Trump withdrawing support for the Syrian rebels has allowed Assad to focus on uprooting ISIS from Syria. Assad has launched an incredibly powerful campaign against ISIS in the Aleppo countryside; Syrian Government sights are now set on the oil fields in Homs and Deir Ez-Zor, with the ultimate target the besieged Deir Ez-Zor city. Should Assad liberate all of this territory, Syria will remain a whole country and not fragment.

Trump's use of the Syrian Kurds in Raqqa does cause concern for Turkey, but is an appropriate middle ground between the Syrian Government and American forces. After the destruction of ISIS from Syria, America is very likely to withdraw and let Russia negotiate a deal between the Syrian Government and their Kurdish counterparts.

Trump's inaction in Afghanistan is actually related to his accelerated action in Syria. Trump realizes that America can only do so much at once - he seems set to end the campaign in Syria before focusing on Afghanistan, and until then only providing military necessity for Afghanistan.

While short-term this will infuriate the Afghan government, long-term it stands to benefit both America and Afghanistan. When the campaign in Syria is dealt with and America has withdrawn, the Trump Administration will put focus on and give a high level of attention to finishing the war in Afghanistan, including through strong-man politics, Afghan border security, tougher stance on the Taliban, increased trade between Afghanistan and America, and, for Afghan stability, increased tri-relations between Afghanistan, America and India. To quell Iranian influence, rather than pursuing regime change in Syria, Trump is likely to pursue a strong, stable Sunni ally in Afghanistan.

In Libya, Trump is leaving it alone, letting Europe and Russia sort out their differences there, which is likely to end with Haftar Al-Khalifa gaining more Russian support in battling for control of the entire country. Europe is unlikely to provide a better alternative, meaning Libya will stabilize with Haftar, backed by Russia and Egypt, without Trump having to lift a finger.

By far Trump's greatest foreign policy challenge is Saudi Arabia's war on Yemen. Currently the Trump Administration is reviewing their strategy in Yemen and considering escalating the war in Yemen against the Houthis to quell Iranian influence there.

Should Trump see the treasure of Iraqi Shi'ism for what it is, I do not think he will support military intervention against the Houthis in Yemen. It is better for America - by far - if Saudi Arabia and her coalition fight this Yemen War on their own, while the Trump Administration targets Al-Qaeda extensively, as they have been doing since taking office. Meanwhile, should the Houthis gain control of the entirety of Yemen - which is the likely outcome of such a war should America not intervene - Iraqi Shi'ism could be funded there to decrease the Iranian influence in Yemen.

Should Trump decide not to intervene against the Houthis in Yemen, he shall truly be able to get America out of the endless cycle of wars. Should Trump allow Russia to control Libya, this will help Russian-American relations considerably. Should Trump withdraw from Syria after defeating ISIS, this will increase his appeal in America.

Should Trump win the Afghan and Iraq Wars, he will go down in history as one of America's great Presidents.