US pivot to the Pacific; Gulf kingdoms' ties with Israel; Iraqi and Afghan priorities; an Iranian-Chinese strategic partnership - all of these factors increase the likelihood of the US losing its dominance of the Arabian Gulf.
As with Iran in 1979, the United States once again faces the likelihood of losing a large portion of influence in the Middle-East.
The 1979 revolution did not happen by accident. By the late 1960's staunch US ally Britain was no longer willing to maintain its superpower status and made a strategic withdrawal from the global stage. To make up for Britain's absence, the US increasingly relied on the Shah of Iran to help it police the region. Unfortunately, core financial issues coupled with strong relations with Israel left Iran ripe for Ayatollah Khomeini's revolution and forced the Shah out of power.
Similarly to Britain 60 years ago, under Donald Trump the United States is looking to make a strategic withdrawal, particularly from the Middle-East and from Europe. At the same time, the US is focusing its military assets on the Pacific and ramping up pressure on adversaries China and Iran. While the US is certainly likely to prevent Chinese dominance in the Pacific, its simultaneous pressure on Iran and China gives both nations a timely opportunity for Middle-Eastern dominance.
Earlier this year a draft of a strategic partnership between China and Iran was leaked to the international press. If Donald Trump is reelected President, it is highly likely the two powers would implement the partnership and ignite Cold War 2 with the United States. In such a scenario, China would not need to invade Taiwan to defeat the US; instead, China would be able to apply sizeable pressure on the US in Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon and the Arabian Gulf through its partnership with Iran - to deadly effect.
Should China back Iran's efforts for Middle-Eastern dominance, there would be little that the Trump Administration would be able to do to stop them. Donald Trump was elected precisely because of public exasperation with military intervention in the Middle-East, and President Trump is beholden to that national mood. Only in Iraq and Afghanistan would President Trump be allowed to intervene militarily, and that because of the US' past sacrifices there. All of these factors create a considerable opening for Iran and China in the Arabian Gulf.
Unfortunately, the Trump Administration's strategy of bringing Gulf kingdoms and Israel together in its absence only increases the likelihood that China will acquire the Arabian Gulf. Israeli peace with the UAE and Bahrain certainly seems an historic achievement in the short term, but in the long term it brings a day of reckoning for neighbouring Saudi Arabia.
Mohammed Bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, serves as an almost identical case study to the Shah of Iran. MBS is autocratic, warm in his approach to Israel, not favoured by the religious establishment, facing economic uncertainty at home and is helping the US police the region. Israeli peace with the UAE and Bahrain certainly would not have happened without tacit approval from MBS; should he become king and also make peace with Israel, it is highly likely to backfire.
In few ways would this backfiring be more evident than with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia's close military ally. As China and the US have been carving up their spheres of influence, Saudi Arabia has drifted closer to the US, India and Israel, while Pakistan has found itself even more closely aligned with China. Should Saudi Arabia erupt in instability, it is likely that China and Iran would apply sizable pressure on Pakistan to renege on its military commitments to Saudi Arabia. Close Saudi ties with both India and Israel only increases the likelihood of Pakistani neutrality in the face of Saudi instability.
Should Arabia join the Chinese-Iranian sphere of influence, it would have a decisive impact on the region. Iraq would take Saudi Arabia's place as the foremost US regional priority after Israel, and driving Iran out of Iraq would become an even more urgent priority than it is today. After Israel and Iraq, Afghanistan would be the US' next highest priority, as through Afghanistan the US would be able to apply pressure on both Iran and Pakistan.
With China dominating Iran, Arabia and Pakistan, the Middle-East would become even more volatile and unpredictable. China would dominate both sides of the Arabian Gulf, and Iraq, Jordan and the smaller Gulf kingdoms would all be on the front line against an increasingly belligerent China.
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